How Pete Ratings works
A short look at where the numbers come from.
Team ratings
Every NBA game result feeds a mathematical model that estimates how strong each team is. It looks beyond wins and losses: how much a team wins or loses by, and how good its opponents are, both count.
Ratings are centered on zero, so an average team is 0.0. A team rated +6.0 is about 6 points better than an average team on a neutral court, and the difference between two teams' ratings is roughly how much one would be expected to beat the other.
Home court
Playing at home is worth a few points in the NBA, and the model accounts for it. Games played at neutral sites, such as international games, don't get that adjustment.
Early in the season
When teams have only played a handful of games, the model also considers how they finished last season. As the season goes on, it relies more and more on this season's results.
Predictions
Each game's prediction compares the two teams' ratings and adjusts for home court. The win chance shows how often a pick like that has won in the past.
Predictions are published every morning before tip-off and are never changed afterward. Once a game ends, the result is shown next to the original prediction.
Track record
Tested on recent NBA seasons, using only information available before each game, the model picked the winner in about 67% of games, with an average miss of about 11 points. The live record is on the predictions page.
Keep in mind
Basketball is unpredictable, and even good predictions often miss by double digits. The ratings don't account for injuries, rest, or roster changes. Everything here is for information and entertainment, not betting advice.